Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin bulls require a 9% surge from current levels to gain an advantage ahead of Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry.
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A striking 90% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 highlights how broader tech investor sentiment currently dictates Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached an eight-day high on Wednesday, confirming a classic double-bottom pattern near the $62,500 support zone. This technical rebound offers a glimmer of hope, yet the cryptocurrency remains a significant 21% below its level from one month ago. With a major monthly options expiry looming—involving a notional $10.5 billion in contracts—the current structure heavily favors sellers. The critical question is whether bullish momentum can surge in the final hours to shift the balance, or if the existing options positioning will cement further downside pressure.
The Dominance of Deribit and a Closer Look at Open Interest
Deribit continues to dominate the cryptocurrency options market, capturing 76% of the total open interest for Friday’s expiry. This amounts to approximately $4.5 billion in call (buy) options and $3.4 billion in put (sell) options. Other major venues include OKX, with about $1 billion in total interest (10% share), and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), holding roughly $542 million (5% share).
A superficial look suggests aggregate call open interest is about 25% higher than puts, seemingly bullish. However, this view is dangerously misleading. Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $75,000 in early February trapped a massive volume of bullish bets. Data from Deribit indicates that a staggering 88% of all call options will expire completely worthless if Bitcoin settles below $70,000 this Friday. Even when excluding ultra-high-strike calls (e.g., $105,000+) typically used in low-cost, complex spreads, only 37% of the remaining call open interest sits below the $75,000 mark. This reality shrinks the effective, in-the-money call volume on Deribit to an estimated $780 million.
Put Options: The Overlooked Powerhouse
Conversely, put options demonstrate concentrated strength. There is $1.44 billion in put open interest targeting prices below $60,000 on Deribit. While some of this extreme bearish positioning (e.g., at $40,000 or $45,000) likely belongs to calendar spreads or ratio strategies that don’t require a crash to profit, the sheer volume is telling. More critically, puts at and above the $72,000 strike level total approximately $1.15 billion in open interest. This cluster alone is more than sufficient to absorb the entire estimated $780 million in viable call open interest, giving sellers a decisive structural advantage across a wide price range.
This dynamic underscores a market where protective and bearish hedging dominates speculative upside wagers. While Bitcoin’s recent slide toward $60,000 may not be directly tied to macroeconomic trends, the upcoming U.S. market close on Wednesday features Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report. The performance of AI leaders like Nvidia is now a critical bellwether for all risk assets, including crypto. Sustained strength in the AI sector supports the “risk-on” sentiment that Bitcoin often follows.
The Nasdaq 100 Correlation: A Double-Edged Sword
The current 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index is exceptionally high, nearing 0.90. This statistical relationship clearly shows that sentiment and flows within the U.S. technology sector are the primary drivers of trader confidence in Bitcoin at present. Historically, such tight correlations are not permanent, but for the immediate term, they are decisive.
This linkage means Bitcoin’s fate for Friday’s expiry is entangled with Wall Street’s performance. A strong rally in the Nasdaq following positive tech earnings could provide the necessary tailwind for Bitcoin. Conversely, any disappointment could reinforce the bearish options positioning. As long as Bitcoin trades below the psychologically crucial $75,000 level, the technical and options market structure continues to favor put sellers.
Three Probable Scenarios for Friday’s Expiry
Based on current pricing and the concentrated options clusters, three settlement zones emerge, all favoring
