Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a volatile weekend, briefly dipping below the $65,000 mark on Sunday before finding some stability around $65,900 early Monday. This pullback coincides with a surge in bearish wagers on the prediction market Polymarket, where traders are increasingly betting that the cryptocurrency’s decline has further to run.
Prediction Markets Signal Deepening Bearish Sentiment
On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 jumped to 72%, backed by a significant $1.2 million in wagered volume. This represented a 14% surge in those odds at the time of writing. Other substantial bearish bets include a 61% chance of a drop below $50,000 (with $170,000 in volume) and a 47% probability of falling under $45,000 (with $1.4 million in volume).
Odds that Bitcoin would drop below $55,000 surged 14% at the time of writing. Source: Polymarket
Market Capitalization Shrinks, Ranking Slips
Bitcoin’s market cap contracted to approximately $1.31 trillion during the sell-off. This decline caused it to drop to the 15th position globally by market capitalization, falling behind the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and sitting between it and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), according to data aggregator 8marketcap.
Bitcoin now sits between the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) in market cap rankings. Source: 8marketcap
Year-to-Date Decline Highlights Volatility
This recent slide extends a broader downturn throughout 2024. Bitcoin’s market capitalization has plummeted by about $440 billion year-to-date, a roughly 25% loss from its peak near $90,000. The total cryptocurrency market cap has mirrored this trend, shedding approximately $760 billion, or 24.5%, per CoinGecko data.
At its current level near $65,900, Bitcoin has gained only about 22% over the past five years—a performance that underscores its notorious volatility and reignites debate among investors about its efficacy as a long-term inflation hedge.
Analysts Eye $55,000 as Potential Bottom
The prediction market’s focus on a drop below $55,000 aligns with a more cautious outlook from several established financial voices. Analysts at Standard Chartered have projected that BTC could retest the $50,000 level before a potential recovery toward $100,000. Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has suggested that $55,000 may represent the “ultimate market bottom” for this cycle.
CryptoQuant highlighted a key signal reminiscent of the 2022 market bottom: extreme liquidity stress in Tether (USDT), the dominant stablecoin. The firm also noted a sharp contraction in net USDT inflows to exchanges, which fell from a one-year high of $616 million in November 2025 to just $27 million recently. “This contraction indicates reduced liquidity ready to be deployed into crypto markets,” CryptoQuant stated in a report.
Source: CryptoQuant
Contrasting Long-Term Institutional Views
Despite the prevailing short-term bearishness, a segment of the market maintains a strongly optimistic long-term thesis. Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard recently described it on social platform X as the “most undervalued asset in the world.”
This sentiment is echoed in institutional surveys. A recent report from Coinbase found that approximately 70% of institutional investors surveyed view Bitcoin as undervalued when priced between $85,000 and $95,000. The report noted the cryptocurrency’s continued underperformance relative to traditional assets like precious metals and equities, suggesting a potential disconnect between perceived fundamental value and current market pricing.
Source: Coinbase
The current market dynamic presents a stark contrast: on one hand, on-chain data and prediction markets signal weakening liquidity and a high probability of further price decline. On the other, a core cohort of long-term holders and institutional investors see the current price range as a compelling entry point, betting on a future where Bitcoin’s store-of-value proposition is more widely recognized.
