A prominent crypto analyst has declared that Bitcoin has officially shifted into a bearish structural phase following a decisive breakdown below a key long-term support level. Crypto Patel, known for his technical analysis, points to the breach of an ascending trendline around $107,000 on the weekly chart as the critical signal that the broader bullish trend has been broken.
Breakdown Below $107,000 Marks Structural Shift
The analysis hinges on the weekly timeframe, where an ascending trendline—connecting a series of higher lows from the 2023–2025 rally—acted as a crucial dynamic support. This trendline successfully guided price action until Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,080. The subsequent failure to hold above approximately $107,000, highlighted in a red circle on the referenced chart, represents a “line in the sand” moment. The breakdown has since led to a pattern of lower highs, a classic hallmark of a downtrend. According to this view, the market is now in a corrective phase that requires a significant pullback before a new sustainable uptrend can potentially begin.
Fibonacci Retracement Points to $44,000 and $35,000 Targets
Projecting the depth of this correction involves applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the entire move from the October 2025 all-time high down to recent lows. Historical Bitcoin cycle behavior provides the framework for these targets. Previous major bear markets saw profound corrections: the 2018 cycle low was approximately 84% below its peak, and the 2022 correction erased about 77% from its cycle high. These deep retracements are a established, though not guaranteed, pattern in Bitcoin’s history.
Drawing from the 2025 high, the 0.5 Fibonacci level (~$44,000) is identified as a potential mid-cycle stabilization point. This level has historically attracted strong buying interest during corrections. However, should selling pressure persist, the next major level is the 0.618 retracement (~$35,000). The analyst’s base case suggests Bitcoin will eventually find a cycle bottom in this region, even if it temporarily holds above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, reflecting a 6% decline over the prior 24-hour period.
It is critical to note that Fibonacci retracements are a probabilistic tool used to identify potential support or resistance zones based on mathematical ratios and past market psychology. They do not guarantee price action but highlight areas where buying or selling may intensify. The projection to $35,000 represents an extension of the current downtrend based on the magnitude of prior cycles, not a certainty.
This analysis presents one technical perspective. Market conditions are influenced by a complex array of factors including macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and on-chain activity. Investors should consider a wide range of analyses and conduct their own due diligence before making financial decisions.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
