Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a dramatic surge on Wednesday, climbing from near $62,400 to a weekly peak of $69,500 in less than a day. This decisive rally coincided with a significant shift in market sentiment, fueled by renewed institutional interest in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and broader macroeconomic optimism following recent U.S. policy signals.
An analysis of derivatives markets indicates that the rally was primarily driven by genuine spot demand. Key metrics show a decline in aggregate open interest and funding rates that remain contained, suggesting the move was not powered by excessive leveraged betting.
Macro Catalysts and a Turning Tide for Bitcoin ETFs
The broader risk-on tone was bolstered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. His framing of the past year as an “economic turnaround for the ages,” citing falling mortgage rates and a noted decline in core inflation, was interpreted by markets as a reduction in near-term policy uncertainty. This helped steady equities and, by extension, cryptocurrency markets.
More directly, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF segment recorded a pivotal net inflow of $257.7 million on February 24. This inflow snapped a five-week streak of net outflows that had totaled $3.8 billion. Leading the charge were Fidelity, which attracted approximately $83 million, and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which saw inflows close to $79 million. This institutional re-entry provided a strong fundamental underpinning for BTC’s price ascent.
Futures Data Signals a Market Reset
As Bitcoin consolidated above $69,000, futures market data revealed a market that has successfully purged excessive leverage. The total aggregated open interest has stabilized around 235,167 BTC, down from levels exceeding 240,000 BTC earlier in the week. This contraction indicates that a significant amount of over-leveraged positions were liquidated during the preceding volatile period.
Simultaneously, the aggregated funding rate across major exchanges has settled at a slightly negative -0.0037%. In this context, a negative rate means short positions are paying longs, a classic sign that the market is not aggressively chasing the rally with new long leverage. The combination of cooling open interest and neutral-to-negative funding rates points to a healthier market reset rather than an overheated bounce.
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), a metric measuring the net buying vs. selling pressure in the order book, has trended higher. This confirms that aggressive spot buying has been a primary engine of the recent price appreciation.
Market analyst BackQuant highlighted that derivatives activity remains influential. Options dealers—the firms selling options and hedging their risk—are reportedly holding “positive gamma.” With positive gamma, dealers buy as prices fall and sell as prices rise to maintain a neutral hedge. This behavior can act as a volatility dampener, potentially smoothing price swings and preventing sharp, unsustainable breakouts in either direction.
Trader LP focused on spot order book dynamics, identifying a strong zone of bid support between $60,000 and $63,000 that absorbed significant selling pressure. The subsequent 8% upside expansion from that region underscores the strength of that demand. However, LP cautioned that a resurgence of sell orders near current levels could indicate fading buy-side aggression and possibly lead to a corrective pullback.
Bitcoin one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin one-hour chart, aggregated funding rate, open interest, and volume. Source: Velo.chart
Bitcoin orderbook analysis by LP. Source: X
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