Recent market analysis from prominent crypto traders suggests Bitcoin may be poised for a further correction toward the $63,000 level. This outlook is grounded in an examination of recent liquidity dynamics and shifting behavior among short-term market participants, painting a near-term bearish picture for the flagship cryptocurrency.
Liquidity Patterns and Technical Structure Point to Downside Risk
On April 4th, the analyst known as KillaXBT shared a detailed technical breakdown on the social media platform X, outlining potential paths for Bitcoin’s price. The analysis centers on the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart structure, highlighting a sequence of liquidity sweeps that have defined recent action.
KillaXBT noted that approximately four weeks ago, price swept above a key external range high before reversing sharply, culminating in a bearish weekly close. This forced a rebalancing, with price subsequently returning toward the $71,500 area—a move the analyst interpreted as a classic “liquidity hunt” designed to trigger late short positions before another bearish reversal.
The following week saw another sweep of liquidity, this time to the upside, which was met with a clear rejection. With the market structure now leaning bearish and recent recoveries heavily supported by leveraged long positions, KillaXBT argues that available buying pressure may be nearing exhaustion. This exposes the recent lows near $64,900 to a potential retest.
Extending the analysis, the trader identifies the external range lows near $63,000 as a critical downside target in the medium term. Notably, this projected sweep aligns with a potential bullish reversal setup toward the $72,800 level, where significant sell-side liquidity is anticipated to reside.
On-Chain Data Shows Short-Term Holders Distributing
Supporting the technically-driven bearish case, on-chain analyst Joao Wedson highlighted a shift in behavior among a crucial cohort: short-term Bitcoin holders. Using the “Short-term Holder Net Position Change” metric—which tracks the net selling or accumulation of investors holding BTC for less than 155 days—Wedson observed a clear trend of distribution, or selling pressure.
This investor group is typically more sensitive to price volatility and news flow compared to long-term “HODLers.” A sustained net negative reading on this metric indicates that newer market participants are actively selling into strength or weakness, often exacerbating downward price moves. The current reading suggests this cohort is in a decisive selling mode, adding fundamental on-chain weight to the technical forecast for lower prices.
The convergence of KillaXBT’s technical liquidity analysis and Wedson’s on-chain evidence of short-term holder capitulation strengthens the argument for a test of the $63,000 region. As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading near $67,256, up 0.5% over the preceding 24 hours, but within a broader corrective framework.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source:
