Bitcoin’s Rally Hitting a Wall? Derivatives and Miner Pressures Expose Underlying Hesitation
Bitcoin (BTC) recently climbed to a four-week high, reigniting hopes for a retest of the January monthly close near $78,700. The 22% surge from the local bottom of $60,000 on February 6 is a positive technical signal. Yet, a closer look at market structure reveals a significant lack of bullish conviction. On-chain metrics and derivatives positioning suggest that bears remain firmly in control, and several structural headwinds could cap further upside in the near term.
Options Market Signals Deep-Rooted Caution
Professional traders are demonstrating a strong preference for downside protection, a bearish indicator that has persisted despite the recent price recovery. On Deribit, the leading cryptocurrency options exchange, the 30-day put-call skew—measuring the premium for put (sell) options over calls (buy)—is hovering around a 10% premium for puts. In a neutrally balanced market, this metric typically oscillates between -6% and 6%. The last time it was this elevated was in mid-January, when Bitcoin traded near $95,000.
This persistent demand for puts indicates that market makers and institutional players are hedging against a potential pullback. Simultaneously, the annualized basis rate—the premium for BTC futures contracts—remains stagnant below the neutral 5% threshold. This stagnation suggests a lack of sustained demand for leveraged long positions, further underscoring the market’s cautious mood. This hesitation follows a month-long consolidation after the sharp 32% correction in early February and persists even as prices climb back above $73,000.
Overhead Supply from Breakeven Holders
The derivatives caution is mirrored on-chain. According to data from analytics firm Glassnode, approximately 43% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently held at a loss, based on the price at which the coins last moved on the blockchain. This is a significant increase from the 30% of supply in profit when Bitcoin was trading around $90,000 in late January.
Traders are acutely aware of this dynamic. A large cohort of investors who entered positions at higher prices may look to exit or reduce risk as the price recovers toward their entry points. This potential selling pressure from those breaking even or seeking recovery creates a persistent overhead supply that could limit the rally’s momentum.
Mining Profitability Squeezed by AI Demand
The foundational security layer of the Bitcoin network is also under stress. The exponential surge in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing power has created a fierce competition for energy and data center resources. This has squeezed Bitcoin miner profitability to multi-year lows. The Hashprice Index, which estimates the daily revenue per unit of computing power (terahash per second), has plummeted to around $30, down from $39 just three months ago.
This economic pressure is forcing strategic shifts. Several major publicly listed mining firms, which had previously adopted a “HODL” strategy and built up Bitcoin reserves on their balance sheets, are now pivoting. They are redirecting capital and infrastructure toward more lucrative AI and high-performance computing (HPC) opportunities. This pivot often involves selling BTC holdings to fund the transition, adding another source of potential selling pressure to the market.
The $76,000 Psychological and Strategic Battle Zone
The most critical near-term hurdle may not be a technical resistance level, but a psychological and strategic cost basis. Strategy (MSTR), the publicly traded company led by Michael Saylor, remains the most prominent example of a corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy. After accumulating 720,737 BTC since 2020, the company’s average acquisition price sits at approximately $76,000.
While Strategy is not facing immediate liquidity risks, the market understands the dynamics. A sustained price above this level validates their strategy and could allow them to issue equity to acquire more BTC without diluting existing shareholders—a powerful bullish signal. Conversely, market participants with a bearish tilt have a strong incentive to keep the price suppressed below this key threshold to prevent that positive feedback loop from initiating.
Other corporate holders, such as Metaplanet and Twenty One Capital, face similar valuation pressures. Therefore, the $76,000 level represents a major battle zone. For Bitcoin to confidently target the January high of $78,700 and beyond, it must first conclusively break and hold above this average corporate cost basis. Until then, the confluence of cautious derivatives, overhead supply, and miner-related selling pressures suggests the path of least resistance may be a continued consolidation.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy,
