A closer look on-chain reveals a growing divergence between Bitcoin’s largest holders and smaller investors, a dynamic that could signal further volatility ahead. According to analytics firm Santiment, whales—addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC—have been selling into recent strength, while retail investors, defined as those with less than 0.01 BTC, have been buying the dip.
Santiment’s data shows that between February 23 and March 3, when Bitcoin traded in a range from approximately $62,900 to $69,600, the whale cohort “accumulated heavily.” This buying pressure helped fuel a rally that saw the price climb past $70,000 and briefly touch $74,000. However, since Wednesday, these large holders have offloaded roughly 66% of the Bitcoin they acquired during that accumulation phase.
This selling from whales contrasts sharply with the behavior of retail investors, who have continued to increase their positions as the price retreated. The accompanying chart from Santiment visually underscores this split, with the whale accumulation line (green) trending down as the retail buying line (red) moves up.
Whale Selling Often Precedes Corrections
“When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” Santiment stated in a report on Friday. This historical pattern suggests the current pullback may have further to run before finding a sustainable bottom. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $67,984, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The market sentiment has deteriorated in tandem with the price decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a popular measure of market emotion, fell 6 points on Saturday to register a score of 12, firmly placing it in “Extreme Fear” territory. This reading reflects heightened anxiety among investors following the rejection near the $74,000 level.
Key Support Levels in Focus
Analyst Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, echoed the cautious outlook. He identified a critical support zone between $67,000 and $68,000. “If Bitcoin doesn’t find support in this $67-68K region, then we’re likely going to retest the lows for liquidity before bouncing back upwards,” van de Poppe wrote in an X post on Friday. A failure to hold this zone could see price revisit the February lows near $60,000.
Institutional Flow Turns Negative
The price weakness also manifested in institutional investment vehicles. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their largest single-day net outflow since February 12, with a total of $348.9 million withdrawn across all 11 products on Wednesday, according to data aggregator Farside Investors. This outflow indicates a temporary pause or reduction in institutional demand, adding another layer of selling pressure to the market.
A Potential Floor at $60,000?
Economist and analyst Timothy Peterson pointed to historical valuation models as a source of optimism. Referring to the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value chart—a metric that compares market price to the square of the number of active addresses—Peterson argued that the $60,000 level has consistently acted as a major support zone. “This valuation level has always marked a bottom for Bitcoin. About 99.5% chance it stays above $60k,” he stated in an X post. While not a guarantee, this model suggests the recent February low could represent a significant long-term floor.
The confluence of whale distribution, ETF outflows, and a slide into “Extreme Fear” paints a picture of a market in a corrective phase. Whether the $60,000 level holds as ultimate support may depend on whether retail buying can eventually absorb the selling pressure from larger holders, a shift that would be required to reignite a sustainable upward trend.
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