Central banks are accumulating gold, not Bitcoin. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio remains skeptical of crypto as a safe haven. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades roughly 44% below its October peak, while gold hovers near all-time highs. This divergence sets the stage for a bold, data-driven argument from Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management: Bitcoin could still reach $1 million per coin within the next decade.
A Different Way To Run The Numbers
Critics often dismiss the $1 million forecast by calculating the market cap Bitcoin would need to capture half of gold’s current value. Hougan contends this is a fundamental mistake because it treats gold’s market cap as static. In reality, gold’s total addressable market is expanding.
Historical data shows gold’s market cap has grown at approximately 13% annually since 2004, rising from about $2.5 trillion to roughly $38 trillion. This growth has been fueled by persistent government debt accumulation, geopolitical instability, and accommodative monetary policies—factors that broadly define a “store-of-value” market.
If this trajectory continues, Hougan projects the global store-of-value market could reach approximately $121 trillion within ten years. At that scale, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17%—roughly one-sixth—of that total market to justify a $1 million price per coin, assuming its supply remains capped at 21 million. This is a significantly different, and arguably more attainable, target than the 50% share often cited by skeptics.
Hougan points to institutional adoption as the primary catalyst. The growing footprint of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), increasing allocations from sovereign wealth funds, and the gradual integration of Bitcoin into diversified portfolios could collectively drive its market share higher over the coming decade.
“There are still miles to go,” Hougan noted in a recent analysis, “but capturing a sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn’t seem extreme.”
BTCUSD trading at $69,608 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
The Gap Between Thesis And Charts
The bullish case rests on Bitcoin’s behavior converging with gold’s. Currently, the two assets are diverging sharply. Gold set a record high above $5,327 per ounce in late January 2024 and remains within 2.2% of that level. Bitcoin, in contrast, has faltered despite the same macroeconomic tailwinds—rising debt, inflation uncertainty, and geopolitical friction—that traditionally boost gold.
Research from NYDIG, a prominent crypto financial services firm, directly addressed this disconnect in early March. The firm’s global head of research stated that Bitcoin “does not appear to be getting priced as a macro hedge, a sovereign risk hedge, or an inflation trade.” This analysis highlights the frustration among proponents who have long labeled Bitcoin “digital gold,” as the asset continues to correlate more with risk appetite than with fear.
Dalio’s Pushback
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, amplified these skeptical views earlier this month. His core argument is that gold’s institutional legitimacy is cemented by central bank demand—a force entirely absent for Bitcoin.
Dalio further asserts that Bitcoin’s price action resembles a technology stock more than a commodity hedge. It tends to rise and fall with broader market liquidity and risk sentiment, rather than acting as a counter-cyclical safeguard. In his view, this behavioral pattern underscores a vast gap between Bitcoin’s potential store-of-value thesis and its current market reality.
Bitcoin & Iran-US War
Recent market reactions provide a clear case study. The U.S.-Israeli military strike on Iran in late February 2025 triggered over $300 million in cryptocurrency liquidations, sending Bitcoin lower before a partial recovery on de-escalation signals.
This episode exemplifies the critique: Bitcoin moved *with* risk-off sentiment (falling on geopolitical escalation) rather than *against* it. Such behavior aligns with Dalio’s characterization and suggests Bitcoin has not yet earned the “digital gold” moniker in the eyes of the broader institutional world.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
