Is Money Rotating From Gold to Bitcoin? ETF Data Suggests a Shift
For much of the past year, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been the undeniable favorite, drawing billions in sustained inflows as investors sought a classic safe haven. However, recent data points to a potential change in the flow of capital. Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have recorded net positive inflows, while gold ETFs have seen demand cool, marked by significant outflows. This divergence is occurring even as gold prices remain near historic highs and Bitcoin’s price momentum has moderated, prompting analysts to scrutinize whether a broader rotation between the two non-yield-bearing assets is beginning.
The most striking evidence came from the largest US gold-backed ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). According to The Kobeissi Letter, GLD experienced a $3 billion withdrawal on a single day in early March—the largest daily outflow in over two years. This move followed a sharp 4.4% decline in gold prices, its steepest drop since January. This outflow stands in stark contrast to the preceding months; gold ETFs had attracted $18.7 billion in January and $5.3 billion in February, representing the strongest two-month start on record and extending a nine-month streak of inflows. Analysts interpret the recent selling as investors cashing in on gold’s massive rally, which saw the metal post a 65% return in 2025.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF flows have done an about-face. Data from bold.report shows that the 30-day net flow for Bitcoin ETFs shifted to a $273 million inflow by March 6, a dramatic reversal from a $1.9 billion outflow just one month prior on February 6. To look beyond dollar value and see the actual asset movement, tracking “native units”—the underlying BTC or gold ounces held by the funds—reveals the divergence even more clearly. Bitcoin ETF holdings moved from a net decrease of 42,275 BTC on February 6 to a net increase of 4,021 BTC by March 6. Over the same period, gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces. This metric isolates real accumulation or distribution, filtering out the noise of price changes.
“Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring,” said Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Horizon. “BTC is set to overtake gold’s % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”
Historical Patterns and the Path Forward
This potential rotation isn’t happening in a vacuum. In a “2026 Look Ahead” report, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper highlighted that gold’s 2025 performance was the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. Kuiper noted a historical pattern: “Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next.”
However, history also suggests such a rotation isn’t instantaneous. Analysis of the BTC-to-gold ratio shows that after Bitcoin’s major bottom in 2022, it took approximately 147 days, or about 21 weeks, to establish a sustained trend of outperformance against gold. That period was a consolidation phase before the ratio began a decisive climb. Currently, the BTC-to-gold ratio is trading in a zone that resembles earlier consolidation phases from 2022-2023, implying any new trend may need time to solidify.
Kuiper also emphasized that both assets can benefit from similar macroeconomic headwinds, including persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty, as investors seek neutral stores of value outside traditional systems. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, for instance, has reinforced traditional safe-haven demand that previously buoyed gold.
Macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to eventually outperform gold over the next two to three years, viewing gold’s recent rally as a precursor to Bitcoin’s next major move in the typical cycle.
This analysis is based on publicly available ETF flow data and historical performance metrics. It is not investment advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
