Prediction Market Giants Kalshi and Polymarket Eye $20 Billion Valuations in New Funding Rounds
Two leading prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are reportedly in early-stage discussions with investors for fresh fundraising rounds that could see each company valued at approximately $20 billion. This potential valuation would represent a significant doubling from their most recent funding rounds, underscoring rapid growth and heightened investor interest in the event-based betting sector, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal citing sources familiar with the matter.
The negotiations are preliminary, the report notes, and there is no guarantee that deals will be finalized or that the targeted valuations will be achieved. The move comes amid soaring revenues for both platforms and increased scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers concerned about market integrity and potential insider trading.
Kalshi’s Regulated Growth in the U.S.
Kalshi, founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, operates as a fully regulated event derivatives exchange in the United States under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which granted its approval in 2020. The platform allows users to wager on outcomes spanning sports, politics, economic indicators, and cultural events.
In December 2024, Kalshi secured $1 billion in funding at an $11 billion valuation from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. The company has since reported a revenue run rate exceeding $1 billion, with some internal estimates suggesting it could be closer to $1.5 billion annually. This financial performance is a key driver behind the pursuit of a doubled valuation.
Polymarket’s Planned U.S. Expansion
Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, has operated primarily as an offshore platform accessible globally but restricted for U.S. users without technical workarounds like virtual private networks (VPNs). The company’s last major funding round in October 2024 valued it at about $9 billion, following a commitment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)—the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange—to invest up to $2 billion.
Polymarket is now planning to launch a regulated, U.S.-compliant version of its platform later in 2025, a move that could significantly expand its addressable market and align it with the regulatory framework that Kalshi already navigates.
Regulatory Spotlight and Insider Trading Concerns
The rapid ascent of both platforms has drawn intense attention from U.S. regulators and lawmakers. As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Democratic members of Congress are drafting legislation to establish a clearer regulatory framework for prediction markets. This legislative push was partly triggered by suspiciously timed bets on geopolitical events, such as the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Senator Chris Murphy publicly alleged that individuals with potential advance knowledge from the White House may have used that information to place profitable bets on Polymarket. Reports indicated that several accounts on the platform earned roughly $1 million by wagering just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.
Polymarket Faces Repeated Allegations
Polymarket has been the subject of multiple insider trading allegations. In one recent incident, a cluster of crypto wallets generated over $1.2 million in profits by betting on a market related to an on-chain investigation into the DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT published findings about alleged insider trading connected to the project.
In a separate case last month, another Polymarket account reportedly earned about $400,000 after placing a substantial wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just prior to the news becoming public. These patterns have raised persistent questions about whether certain traders possess non-public information.
This article is based on reporting from The Wall Street Journal and Cointelegraph’s prior coverage. Cointelegraph maintains strict editorial independence. Readers are encouraged to verify information through official sources and regulatory filings.
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